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Warning rejected to protect tourism

Posted by Lance Powers

There was an hour that lapsed between when the quake was felt in Bangkok and elsewhere in the Kingdom and when the tidal waves crested on Thailand's west cost. The question on everyone's mind now is why was there no warning during these critical 60 minutes? We live in an age with satellite imagery and instant communications so surely this was possible. This question was being discussed in Phuket before I left and many skeptical expats had suggested that perhaps there were fears a false alarm may hurt the already damaged tourism industry here during its peak weak of the year. This is a part of this tragedy nobody wants to think about as it seems many deaths could have certainly been avoided quite easily. I see that The Nation newspaper has taken the initiative and published the following disturbing story...

Warning rejected to protect tourism
Published on December 28, 2004

Minutes after the earthquake hit northern Sumatra at 7.58am on Sunday, officials of the Meteo-rological Department, who were at a seminar in Cha-am, convened an emergency meeting chaired by Supharerk Tansrirat-tanawong, director-general.

They had just learned that the Bangkok office had reported a quake measuring at 8.1 on the Richter scale, which was much lower than the level officially recorded later.

"We didn't think there would be subsequent seismic waves, because a similar quake of 7.6 on the Richter scale, which hit Sumatra on November 2, 2002, did not affect Thailand," said a member of the department who asked not to be named.

Moreover, the quake this time hit west of Sumatra and officials thought the island might offer a natural shelter, preventing any waves from breaking towards Phuket and its vicinity, he said.

With slightly less than one hour before the waves came ashore, Supharerk said, the department officials did not expect a tsunami. There are just four people on the department's 900-person staff who are earthquake experts, he said. Also, a tsunami had not hit Thailand in more than 300 years.

But sources said they did discuss the likelihood that a tsunami could hit Thailand's Andaman Sea coastal towns. This was also played down.

"The very important factor in making the decision was that it's high [tourist] season and hotel rooms were nearly 100-per-cent full. If we issued a warning, which would have led to evacuation, [and if nothing happened], what would happen then? Business would be instantaneously affected. It would be beyond the Meteorological Department's ability to handle. We could go under, if [the tsunami] didn't come," said a source who attended the meeting.

"We hesitated for a while whether we should issue a warning or not. It was discussed but we didn't have a chance to do it."

Supharerk denied that tourism factored into the discussion at the 11th hour. "I think we have done our best," he said.

Precisely at 9am that Sunday, waves as high as 3 to 10 metres hit the main southern coastal provinces of Phuket, Phang Nga, Krabi and Ranong.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

Source: The Nation

Posted Dec 29, 2004 at 06:48 AM | Permalink |